Isaac Poole

Isaac Poole

Isaac Poole


Poole on Point: Sustaining returns for the future

Sustaining returns for the future

(ATF) The global economy entered recession in 2020. The Covid-19 pandemic was a surprise for everyone. Central banks cut policy rates aggressively. Governments implemented large fiscal support packages. Widespread lockdowns persisted through the year. A vaccine was developed within the year! The recession was short. And financial markets delivered great …

Continue reading

Poole on Point: New year, new opportunity…

Poole on Point: New year, new opportunity…

(ATF) China has the world's second largest economy, which managed to grow in 2020 despite the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. China also has the second largest global equity market and fixed income market. Chinese stocks outperformed global equities in 2020. Yet even with these facts, foreign investors remain structurally …

Continue reading

Poole on Point: China's recovery and the benefits of 20/20 hindsight

Poole on Point: China's recovery and the benefits of 20/20 hindsight

(ATF) The English saying “hindsight is always 20/20” tells us it is easier to analyse events that have occurred in the past. It takes on a special meaning as we approach the end of this year. Even with perfect hindsight, it is difficult to believe the year we have collectively …

Continue reading

Poole on Point: China fills the multi-polar trading gap

Poole on Point: China fills the multi-polar trading gap

(ATF) Flash back to 2005.Brunei, Chile, New Zealand and Singapore signed a trade agreement. Unknown at the time, that was the genesis of the a much larger free-trade agreement. President George W. Bush announced in 2008 that the US would begin trade talks not just with this group, but with …

Continue reading

China may go for lower, higher-quality growth

China may go for lower, higher-quality growth

(ATF) The US economy is recovering from a deep, short Covid-19 recession. GDP contracted 5% in Q1 and an eye-watering 31.4% in Q2 on an annualized basis. But aggressive monetary and fiscal policy support helped US growth rebound. The unemployment rate has almost halved since it reached 14.7% in April. …

Continue reading

Ignoring China Gov't Bonds is not an option

Ignoring China Gov't Bonds is not an option

(ATF) At the end of 2019, 10-year US Treasury bonds were yielding around 1.92%. Sovereign bonds were unloved by international investors. Yields above 3.00% – as recently as late-2018 – were too fresh in the market’s collective memory. The consensus view was that yields were too low to offer any …

Continue reading

Poole on Point: Alpha seekers head to China

Poole on Point: Alpha seekers head to China

(ATF) On August 18, the S&P 500 extended its post-Covid-19 rally and reached record high levels. The collapse caused by the epidemic in March almost seemed a distant, unpleasant memory.Reaching a record high was once remarkable. New US equity market price records were achieved roughly every decade since the 1940s.A …

Continue reading